TODAY’S STUDY: WHERE WHISKEY IS FOR DRINKING AND WATER IS FOR FIGHTING

This post comes from Windpower 2011 in Anaheim, California, where the wind industry is planning its next moves on its way to providing 20% of U.S. grid power. Wind is on track to do so by 2030, which means it will have taken 2 decades fewer and far less money to reach that 20% mark than the nuclear industry.

And, as wind proponents are quick to point out and the recent Japanese nuclear catastrophe revealed vividly, nuclear energy requires inordinate amounts of water whereas wind needs only the water the maintenance technicians drink to stay hydrated.

As the report highlighted below reveals, that is becoming a determinative factor in the energy sector.

Managing Water In The West; Reclamation, SECURE Water Act Section 9503(c) – Reclamation Climate Change and Water, Report to Congress, 2011
April 2011 (U.S. Department of the Interior/Bureau of Reclamation)

Executive Summary

Background

Established in 1902, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) is best known for the dams, powerplants, and canals it constructed within the 17 Western United States. Today, Reclamation is the largest wholesaler of water in the United States and the second largest producer of hydroelectric power in the Western United States. Reclamation’s mission is to manage, develop, and protect water and related resources in an environmentally and economically sound manner in the interest of the American public. Reclamation’s vision is to protect local economies and preserve natural resources and ecosystems through the effective use of water. This vision is achieved through Reclamation’s leadership, use of technical expertise, efficient operations, and responsive customer service.

In meeting its mission, Reclamation’s planning and operations rely upon assumptions of present and future water supplies based on climate. Climate information influences the evaluation of resource management strategies through assumptions or characterization of future potential temperature, precipitation, and runoff conditions, among other weather information. Water supply estimates are developed by determining what wet, dry, and normal periods may be like in the future and by including the potential for hydrologic extremes that can create flood risks and droughts. Water demand estimates are developed across water management system uses, including both the natural and socioeconomic systems, which include agriculture, municipal, environmental, and hydroelectric power generation. System operation boundaries include the natural system and the socioeconomic system.

Acknowledging the uncertainties associated with future climate and associated potential impacts, the Omnibus Public Land Management of 2009 (Public Law 111-11) Subtitle F – SECURE Water authorized Reclamation to continually evaluate and report on the risks and impacts from a changing climate and to identify appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies utilizing the best available science in conjunction with stakeholders.

click to enlarge

SECURE Water and Reclamation’s Response

The Omnibus Public Land Management Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-11) Subtitle F – SECURE Water was passed into law on March 30, 2009. Also known as the SECURE Water Act, the statute establishes that Congress finds that adequate and safe supplies of water are fundamental to the health, economy, security, and ecology of the United States although global climate change poses a significant challenge to the protection of these resources. Congress also finds that data, research, and development will help ensure future water supplies and that, although States bear the primary responsibility and authority for managing the water resources of the United States, the Federal Government should support the States, as well as regional, local, and tribal governments in this endeavor. With a focus on Reclamation’s role as a Federal agency conducting water management and related activities, Reclamation is assessing risks to the water resources of the Western United States and developing strategies to mitigate risks to help ensure that the long-term water resources management of the United States is sustainable.

Section 9503 of the SECURE Water Act identifies the “Reclamation Climate Change and Water Program.” Reclamation is addressing the authorities within the SECURE Water Act through a broad set of activities in conjunction with Secretarial Order 3289 establishing the U.S. Department of the Interior’s integrated approach to addressing climate change and Secretarial Order 3297 establishing the WaterSMART Program and Research and Development activities all of which working in a coordinated manner with other Federal agencies, State, local, and tribal governments and nongovernmental organizations. Reclamation’s activities represent a comprehensive and coordinated approach to identifying risks and impacts associated with current and future climate, working with stakeholders to identify and implement adaptation and mitigation strategies and collaborating to identify the best available science…

click to enlarge

Key Findings of this Report to Congress

A recent paper by the Congressional Budget Office2 summarizes the current understanding of the impacts of climate change in the United States, including that warming will tend to be greater in the interior of the contiguous United States. Temperature and precipitation conditions over Western United States regional drainages are projected to change as the effects of global climate change are realized. Projections of future temperature and precipitation are based on multiple Global Circulation (or Climate) Models (GCMs) and various projections of future greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), technological advancements, and global population estimates. A survey of these models over any of the regional drainages shows that there is model consensus agreement reported between climate model projections that temperatures will increase during the 21st century. There is less model consensus on the direction of precipitation change, with some climate models suggesting decreases while others suggest increases, although greater consensus does exist for some geographic locations (e.g., model consensus towards wetter conditions approaching the Northwestern United States and northern Great Plains and model consensus towards drier conditions approaching the Southwestern United States).

These findings are consistent with the historical and projected future climate information used in this report…Much of the Western United States has experienced warming during the 20th century (roughly 2 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) in the basins considered within this report) and is projected to experience further warming during the 21st century with central estimates varying from roughly 5–7 °F, depending on location. As related to precipitation, historical trends in annual conditions are less apparent. Future projections suggest that the Northwestern and north-central portions of the United States gradually may become wetter (e.g., Columbia Basin and Missouri River basin) while the Southwestern and south-central portions gradually become drier (e.g., San Joaquin, Truckee, and Rio Grande River basins and the Middle to Lower Colorado River Basin). Areas in between these contrasts have median projected changes closer to no change, meaning they have roughly equal chances of becoming wetter or drier (e.g., Klamath and Sacramento basins and the Upper Colorado Basin). Note that these summary statements draw attention to median projected changes in temperature and precipitation, characterized generally across the Western United States. Inspection of the underlying ensemble of projection information shows that there is significant variability and uncertainty about these projected conditions both geographically and with time.

click to enlarge

These historical and projected climate changes have implications for hydrology. Focusing first on snow accumulation and melt, warming trends appear to have led to a shift in cool season precipitation towards more rain and less snow, which has caused increased rainfall-runoff volume during the cool season accompanied by less snowpack accumulation in some Western United States locations. Hydrologic analyses-based future climate projections1 suggest that warming and associated loss of snowpack will persist over much of the Western United States. However, there are some geographic contrasts. Snowpack losses are projected to be greatest where the baseline climate is closer to freezing thresholds (e.g., lower lying valley areas and lower altitude mountain ranges). It also appears that, in high altitude and high latitude areas, there is a chance that cool season snowpack actually could increase during the 21st century (e.g., Columbia headwaters in Canada, Colorado headwaters in Wyoming), because precipitation increases are projected and appear to offset the snow-reduction effects of warming in these locations.

Geographic implications for future runoff are more complex than those for future snowpack. Although historical trends in annual or seasonal runoff appear to be weak, hydrologic analyses based on future climate projections1 suggest that geographic trends should emerge as projected climate change develops. For example, the Southwestern United States to Southern Rockies are projected to experience gradual runoff declines during the 21st century (e.g., Rio Grande River basins and the Colorado River Basin) while the Northwest to north central United States are projected to experience little change through mid-21st century to increases by late-21st century (e.g., Columbia River Basin and Missouri River basin).

click to enlarge

Seasonally speaking, warming is projected to affect snowpack conditions as discussed above. Without precipitation change, this would lead to increases in cool season rainfall-runoff and decreases in warm season snowmelt-runoff. Results show that the degree to which this plays out varies by location in the Western United States. For example, cool season runoff is projected to increase over the west coast basins from California to Washington and over the north-central United States (e.g., San Joaquin, Sacramento, Truckee, Klamath, and Missouri basins and the Columbia Basin) and to experience little change to slight decreases over the Southwestern United States to Southern Rockies (e.g., Colorado River Basin and Rio Grande River basin). Warm season runoff is projected to experience substantial decreases over a region spanning southern Oregon, the Southwestern United States, and Southern Rockies (e.g., Klamath, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Truckee, and Rio Grande River basins and the Colorado River Basin). However, north of this region, warm season runoff is projected to experience little change to slight increases (e.g., Columbia River Basin and Missouri River basin). It seems evident that projected increasing precipitation in the northern tier of the Western United States serves somewhat to neutralize warming-related decreases in warm season runoff whereas projected decreasing precipitation in the southern tier of the Western United States serves to amplify such warming-related decreases in warm season runoff.

While these results indicate how annual and seasonal natural runoff might be altered under climate change and in ways that geographically vary, it is not possible to infer water management impacts from simply these natural runoff changes alone. Water management systems across the West have been designed to operate within envelopes of hydrologic variability, handling variations from season to season and year to year. These systems were designed with local hydrologic variability in mind; and, as a result, their physical and operating characteristics vary in terms of storage capacity and conveyance flexibility. For example, the Colorado River Basin has a relatively large degree of storage relative to annual runoff when compared to California River basins and particularly relative to the Columbia River Basin. The ability to use storage resources to control future hydrologic variability and changes in runoff seasonality is an important consideration in assessing potential water management impacts due to natural runoff changes.

click to enlarge

Within this report, there is a significant difference between the types of information presented with respect to risks from climate change on snowpack, hydrology, and water supplies and risks related to demand changes and the combined impacts on Reclamation’s mission responsibilities. For example, the supply side is presented in a quantitative fashion with change metrics presented on annual runoff and seasonality of runoff. In contrast, for risks from demands and overall impacts, qualitative statements are made from literature synthesis at this time. Assessment of these water management impacts on a local level is a subject of ongoing activities within Reclamation’s Basin Studies Program (Basin Studies and West-Wide Climate Risk Assessments) and other activities.

Finally, while this report summarizes potential future climate and hydrologic conditions based on best available datasets and data development methodologies, there are a number of analytical uncertainties that are not reflected in this report’s characterization of future hydroclimate possibilities. Such uncertainties arise from analyses associated with characterizing future global climate forcings such as greenhouse gas emissions, simulating global climate response to these forcings, correcting global climate model outputs for biases, spatially downscaling global climate model outputs to basin-relevant resolution, and characterizing regional to basin hydrologic response to such downscaled climate projection information…

click to enlarge

Introduction

About Reclamation

Established in 1902, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) is best known for the dams, powerplants, and canals it constructed within the 17 Western United States. These water projects led to homesteading and promoted the economic development of the West. Today, Reclamation is the largest wholesaler of water in the United States and the second largest producer of hydroelectric power in the Western United States. Reclamation provides water to more than 31 million people, and provides one out of five Western farmers with irrigation water for 10 million acres of farmland that produce 60 percent (%) of the Nation’s vegetables and 25 percent of its fruits and nuts. Reclamation’s 58 powerplants annually provide more than 40 billion kilowatthours, which generate nearly a billion dollars in power revenues and produces enough electricity to serve 3.5 million homes.

Reclamation’s mission is to manage, develop, and protect water and related resources in an environmentally and economically sound manner in the interest of the American public. Reclamation’s vision is to protect local economies and preserve natural resources and ecosystems through the effective use of water. This vision is achieved through Reclamation’s leadership, use of technical expertise, efficient operations, and responsive customer service.

This includes developing and implementing efficient use of water through initiatives including conservation, reuse, and research; protecting the public and the environment through the adequate maintenance and appropriate operation of Reclamation’s facilities; managing facilities to fulfill water user contracts and protect and/or enhance conditions for fish, wildlife, land, and cultural resources; work with customers and stakeholders to achieve mutual objectives; assist the Secretary of the Interior in fulfilling Indian Trust responsibilities; implement innovative, sound business practices with timely and cost-effective, measureable results; and promote a culturally diverse workforce that encourages excellence, creativity, and achievement.

click to enlarge

Role of Climate Information in Reclamation’s Water Resources Management

Water management includes the development and fulfillment of operating schemes on a variety of time scales from days to decades. For operating schemes that involve characterization of climate, Reclamation utilizes information in a variety of ways. Within water management planning, climate characterization informs estimations of future water supplies, future water demands, and boundaries of system operation. Climate information influences evaluation of resource management strategies through assumptions or characterization of future potential temperature, precipitation, and runoff conditions among other weather information. Water supply estimates are developed by making determinations of what wet, dry, and normal periods may be like in the future and include the potential for hydrologic extremes that can create flood risks and droughts. Water demand estimates are developed across water management system uses, including both the natural and the socioeconomic systems, which include agriculture, municipal, environmental, and hydroelectric power generation. The boundaries of system operation include the natural system and the socioeconomic system…

West-wide Summary of Hydroclimate Changes

As identified throughout this report, much of the Western United States has warmed during the 20th century (roughly 2 °F in the basins considered here) and is projected to warm further during the 21st century (figure 2). Central estimates of this continued warming vary from roughly 5–7 oF depending on location. Historical trends for precipitation are less apparent.
Projections of future precipitation indicate that the Northwestern and north-central portions of the United States may gradually become wetter while the Southwestern and south-central portions gradually become drier (figure 3). It is noted that these summary statements reflect regionally averaged changes and that projected changes have geographic variation; they vary through time; and the progression of change through time varies among climate projection ensemble members, represented by the median as discussed within section 1.6.2.

These historical and projected changes in climate have implications for hydrology. Warming trends appear to have led to a shift in cool season precipitation towards more rain and less snow, which causes increased rainfall-runoff volume during the cool season accompanied by less snowpack accumulation. Projections of future hydrology (Reclamation 2011a) suggest that warming and associated loss of snowpack will persist over much of the Western United States (figure 65). However, not all locations are projected to experience similar changes. Analyses suggest that losses to snowpack will be greatest where the baseline climate is closer to freezing thresholds (e.g., lower lying valley areas and lower altitude mountain ranges).
Analyses also suggest that, in high-altitude and high-latitude areas, cool-season snowpack actually could increase during the 21st century (e.g., Columbia headwaters in Canada, Colorado headwaters in Wyoming).

click to enlarge

Changes in surface water runoff are more complex than projections of snowpack. Analyses of historical runoff suggest that any trends in annual or seasonal runoff are weak. Hydrologic analyses based on future climate projections suggest that geographic trends may emerge (figures 66 and 67). The Southwestern United States to the Southern Rockies may experience gradual runoff declines during the 21st century and the Northwest to north-central United States may experience little change through mid-21st century with increases projected for the late-21st century (figure 66). As presented previously, warming is projected to affect snowpack conditions both in terms of cool season accumulation and warm season melt.

Without changes to overall precipitation quantity, these changes in snowpack dynamics would lead to increases in cool season rainfall-runoff and decreases in warm season snowmelt-runoff. The hydrologic analyses indicate that the degree to which this expectation may occur varies by location in the Western United States (figure 67). For example, cool season runoff is projected to increase over the west coast basins from California to Washington11 and over the north-central United States, but little change to slight decreases over the Southwestern United States to Southern Rockies is projected. Warm season runoff is projected to experience substantial decreases over a region spanning southern Oregon, the Southwestern United States, and Southern Rockies. However, north of this region warm season runoff is projected to change little to slight increases. It seems evident that projected increasing precipitation in the northern tier of the Western United States (figure 3) could counteract warming-related decreases in warm season runoff, whereas projected decreases in precipitation in the southern tier of the Western United States could amplify warming-related decreases in warm season runoff.